Executive Summary
Efforts to reopen the global economy continue to expand with a rise in global vaccination rates. This means the global economy should continue to rebound over the course of the year, with momentum rotating from the US to the rest of the world. This will likely lead to global 2021 economic growth increases in the range of 6-7%, led by China, India and the US. Interest rates in the developed economies are expected to remain on hold for the next two to three years. A combination of loose fiscal and monetary policy will support a powerful rebound in household and corporate spending in 2H21. The elevated risk of a larger-than-desired jump in inflation and potential increase in US Treasury 10-year yields to 2.0-2.25% by summer represents the core risks that might challenge equity markets. We expect higher volatility in coming months, but robust earnings growth should support equities over the course of the year. The Technology of the Future Fund realized a -3.43% return in March, underperforming the benchmark MSCI World Index (USD), which had a return of +3.11%.